Predictability of Western Himalayan River Flow: Melt Seasonal Inflow

#" !$" Snowmelt dominated streamflow of the Western Himalayan rivers is an important water !%" resource during the dry pre-monsoon months to meet the irrigation and hydropower needs !&" in northern India. This study is one of the first to look at the seasonal prediction of melt!'" dominated total inflow into the Bhakra Dam in northern India, based on statistical !(" relationships with meteorological variables during the preceding winter. Total inflow into !)" the Bhakra dam includes the Satluj River flow together with a flow diversion from its !*" tributary, the Beas River, both of which originate from the Western Himalayas. Both are #+" tributaries of the Indus River. Average measured winter snow volume at the upper #!" elevation stations and corresponding lower elevation rainfall and temperature of Satluj ##" River basin were considered as empirical predictors. A variety of information criteria as #$" well as cross-validation were used to select the best subset of inputs for a Generalized #%" Linear Model (GLM). Forecasts of the melt season at the end of winter and as the melt #&" season commences are shown to have potential skill for guiding the development of #'" stochastic optimization models to manage the trade-off between irrigation and #(" hydropower releases versus flood control during the annual fill cycle of the Bhakra #)" reservoir that is a major energy and irrigation source in the region. #*" """""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""""" *Corresponding author information: Indrani Pal, International Research Institute for Climate and Society, The Earth Institute at Columbia University, 143 Monell, 61 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964. E-mail – [email protected]. Phone: +1 845 680 4508. Fax: +1 845 680 4866.